Live Update

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

08/25/2009 Pre-Market Briefing

Gap up open could be but within yesterday’s range, so very likely the gap will be filled.

Liquidity Inflows and Outflows from

Liquidity inflows are critical to the market's action.   If indicators are weakening while Liquidity is flowing in, then the liquidity inflow will take precedence and hold the market up.   Liquidity inflows had a slight down tick again while in extreme high territory.


Well, too much liquidity there, even more, it’s free, so should very difficult for the market to drop…


  1. Thx!how many gaps? 10?

  2. Well, yes, it's the 10th SPY gap but who knows, maybe we'll have 100th SPY gap? LOL

  3. how did you get that liquidity graph??

  4. Subscribed from

  5. Someone seemed to mock my post yesterday. Just wanted to post it again to remind people of what I saw and why they were wrong. Today might close red but it wasn't a reason to heavily short yesterday. I saw huge volume spike in FAZ and knew it was time to sell yesterday at the close -- people were way too eager.

    My comment:

    "It's troubling as someone who holds a small short position to see so many people get bearish on a day the market dropped...0.05%. Let's wait for some actual selling first before calling a top. Makes me want to cover tomorrow morning on any drop."

    The mockery:

    "It's troubling as someone who holds a small short position to see so many people get bearish on a day the market dropped...0.05%. Let's wait for some actual selling first before calling a top."
    Quote from Investopedia, "Outside Reversal What Does Outside Reversal Mean?
    A charting trend in which a stock price's high and low for the day exceed those of the preceding day. Investopedia explains Outside Reversal
    Depending on where the outside reversal occurs, it may signal either a bearish or bullish price movement. If the reversal occurs at the "stock's resistance level", it is viewed as bearish. In contrast, if it occurs at the stock's support level, it is viewed as bullish." since the S&P reversed at resistance i called yesterday a reversal day.

  6. Thanks Anony at 9:49am, althoug I didn't see "mockery" (probably because of my English). Just I agree that we should keep our friendly talk here. Argument with reasons are acceptable, just no mockery.

  7. Cobra, what do you mean when you say the gap open could be filled? Do you mean that on a gap up, the levels will come back down to where they opened? Sorry, I am an amateur.

  8. Eric, if today's low < Yesterday's close, then I consider the gap is filled. So, accordingly, right now it's not filled.

  9. That liquidity plot is useless, as it has no predictive power; it merely tells us what had already happened.

    I can make up my own too, where people will pay me for it. All I have to do is to make sure that my plot correlates positively with $SPX over time.

  10. Teich... That is the Genius of cobra...Drawing conclusions from useless data. he is the king of it.

    Of course he has said the market will close red and never drop again.

    so certainly he has his bases covered, he will never be wrong again if he says both up and down every day Genius!!!!

  11. Trade what you oberserved on the market. You don't have to follow Cobra's analysis. But I still think it is good to have his analysis at least for the warning. If he is wrong, just stop out.

  12. Anony at 11:44am, nice try, but this blog will go on. What're you going to do about this blog? Are you going to sue me for having a free speech here? What you did everyday is just making my nerve stronger and stronger. I've been spending 4 hours every night for this report for the past 2 years. No matter what happened simply I never missed a single day. You don't know how strong my determination is and you think your simple pathetic attack could make me stop? What kind of fool are you? Keep going on, I'd like to see your bash everyday and use delete button which by the way make me very very happy.

  13. Cobra.....good job and please keep up the good work

    Ignore idiots like ANONY at 11.44...

  14. Cobra, I found your blog on a trader's website:

    "Cobra Blog - Good Tech Analysis"

    I like it; its interesting.

  15. Cobra,

    What a lot of these "bashers" don't understand is that trading is not about being right 100% of the time. Those who think you have to be right ALL the time to make money are the ones who don't stop out just because they want to be right.

    The good traders know that you can be wrong and STILL make money.

    Don't listen to these guys, they still have a lot to learn apparently. Keep up the work.

  16. i start to believe some of those bashers bash you for a reason - to keep us away from your blog so they can profit from our loss. why? they may have a for-fee site, they may hate you because you are trying to 'pulse' what they are doing...

    So congratulations on you made your enemies hate you!

  17. I never comment, but read your blog just about every day. You should just ignore the haters. That guy isn't doing anything productive - all he is doing is being destructive. He isn't offering constructive criticism or pointing out technical faults and providing sound alternatives. He's just spewing garbage. It speaks more about him than anythings else. Keep up the good work.

  18. Thanks for the support. I'll sure keep posting here, no matter what happens.

  19. LOL... if you quit .. how will I bet against you!! Please don't quit!!!

    I'm dying to know if you picked up or down for the day... or will you let us know at the end of the day?

    You have hit Pro status now that you say both up and down! you could be a broker!

  20. I didn't say both up and down. I said "should very difficult for the market to drop", this applies to a little bit longer term (a few days or weeks). Cannot believe you don't even have a concept about "time frame".

    I said yesterday, my winning rate were based on what I said in "after bell quick summary", so if SPX closed in green then it'll be counted as wrong.

  21. Anony at 2:49pm, why don't you count yourself in stead of simply bashing me here. This blog is my home and now I'm telling you: you're not welcome here!

  22. Hi Cobra,...

    Your work is well founded,..and over time will be correct more often than not.

    Nothing easy about market timing,..I am in the midst of a 12% drawdown,..but belive in the approach I use,...and am sticking with it,...will let you know when I have recovered.

    One of the hardest things to do when in a drawdown, to maintain your regime, your case the four hours nightly that you devote to your work.

    So keep your chin up,..don't let the negative thoughts get to you,..and as always,..thanks for making your blog available.

    Regards, Jim P.

  23. PS...It is 3:30pm on Tuesday,...I am still biased that tomorrow Wedn 08-26 (my next 3 wk cycle - likely pivot date) will mark a turn down from a High. So I am biaed for a lower close on Wednesday. Regards, Jim P.

  24. Cobra- thank you for everything. Very easy to be critical.

  25. Jim: I really wonder since when your cycles started showing desired results? You have been tracking them since May I believe and they were never in line. If this is true, what will make them work now?

  26. Jim, are you still using these cycles?$SPX&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p34517688358&a=174962097

  27. cobra, your work is great. keep it up!

    almost a fireworks setup. cpc = .8 and cpce = .59

  28. cpc = 0.81 now, no firework anymore.

  29. Cobra, The best way to rid yourself of unwanted comments is through Disquis where people have to register their email in order to post.

  30. cobra,thank you for your hard work.-alex

  31. Thanks Cobra,

    Your blog is providing great information.
    It is hard to believe that there are people out there not understanding that they have to think and act alone.

    What sign would make you 90% sure that the top was reached?

    Thanks and regards

  32. Anony at 4:47pm, thanks, I'll see how to use Disquis.

    Mark, I really don't know what signs to trust now. Perhaps whenever I'm 200% long then the market is topped. LOL.

  33. Hey Cobra,

    I just wanna say your analysis is one of a kind! I enjoy visiting here daily to see your insight and it has helped me learn a lot. Keep up the good work!




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