Live Update

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

08/19/2009 Pre-Market Briefing

Looks like the SPY will open with a gap down. Whether the gap will be filled or not is a tough call because (at least now) the open is on the Monday’s support so this implies that the gap could be filled but at the same time the gap seems too big to fill. One thing is certain though - today will be interesting.

General rule of thumb, if the gap is filled very quickly right after open then a strong up trend day will be. While if the gap is not filled and after 10:30am ET, there’s an intraday low then a strong down trend day will be.

Good luck everyone!

30 comments:

  1. No matter where we finish looks like market will craw back up next week...too many buy the dip buyers.

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  2. Thanks, Cobra

    I am wondering if you could also update the
    institution buy/sell chart after the bell?

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  3. Anony at 9:51am, see this link:
    http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=58135&page=1#pid775633

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  4. well gap was filled... that was fast...

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  5. So be careful, a strong up day could be.

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  6. @Cobra
    what do you think are the odds for making another low of the day after filling the gap ?

    Thanks

    Mark

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  7. Mark, odds are low just from my experiences. Today's market mover could be 10:35am ET inventory report, anything could happen. We'll know very soon...

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  8. This market is not letting bears get their paws on much short... every big down move is overnight... So best strategy right now (which I've been doing) short into market close ramp and sell the gap down... You see, this market is going down but not letting bears short... all the late day ramp will make you afraid to short and then gap down next morning to make you do "regret" short and then run you over like a truck...

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  9. @all
    What´s your target for recent move?
    Have a resistence line at 1h chart coming from the recent top around 9450, which is met at 9300...

    any thoughts

    Regards
    Mark

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  10. For SPX target could be 1000. Actually, I mean the next resistance will be around 1000 or around the last Friday's close.

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  11. Ah, yes you are trading the SPX, sorry!
    Thanks for your ideas!
    Great work!!
    Mark

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  12. SPX hit 1000. Do you think it has more upward movement? It's lunch break right now so things are kind of slowing down. I'm thinking of averaging down once the rally loses its strength

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  13. I don't know if it has more upside room. I do see some negative divergences on 5 min chart but they may not work on a strong up day like today.

    Don't average down unless you'er 120% sure.

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  14. Are you concerned about the jobs report tomorrow?

    SPC already above my tolerance point of 992.

    Thanks.

    Bill

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  15. Cobra, what do you think of the chance of red close tomorrow since VIX and S&P are green?

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  16. Bill, nowadays it seems every news a good news. I really don't know if news matters or not now.

    Kelly, let's wait until close. After that I'll collect all the info to make a best guess about tomorrow.

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  17. I see a Symmetrical Triangle formed on BAC daily chart which has 54% chances of upside breakout. Since the breakout direction is unknown, if I were you and if I have profits, I'd take at least partial of them.

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  18. i don't like to make lots of trades... thanks to Cobra for reminding us of the importance of the daily $NYSI.... i also use the weekly version as well... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73481830528

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  19. wow cobra!!

    Thank you so much for your fast response and advice, i really appreciate it!!!

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  20. Cobra,
    Thank you for your response to my question.

    Bill

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  21. Hi Cobra,..At 3:30 pm, both the SP500 and the VIX are trading UP. Regards, Jim P.

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  22. Cobra,

    Thanks for the institution buy/sell chart link...
    Where did you plot the chart?

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  23. Hi, Cobra

    I saw your link about institutional buy/sell. Why is that on a Chinese site? Do you speak Chinese?

    Cheers

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  24. Yes, I do speak Chinese. The site you saw is also owned by me.

    Anony at 4:19pm, I belive the chart is on the first post, just scroll down a little, you'll see the chart.

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  25. Hey, that's a surprise. I actually stumbled on your site from others' blogs, and then 'accidentally' found your Chinese site. Just had a glance and it looks interesting. I've not read Chinese for so long that it took a bit getting used to.... I will visit it from now on. Are you trading full time or part time?

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  26. cobra,
    well, i meant how do you plot the institiona buy/sell chart? do you buy the market data from
    some service and plot it yourself ?

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  27. Oh, I bought the service from www.stocktiming.com.

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  28. Got you, that's a very good indicatior

    BTW, I like your chinese writtings a lot

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