Live Update

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

08/19/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

I’m not sure about tomorrow, could be a red close. Anyway, red or green doesn’t matter now as on a little bit longer term, I believe this is a sellable bounce. Will talk about this in tonight’s report.

2 charts arguing for a red close tomorrow:

  • When ISEE Index closed below 100, 58% chances a red close the next day.


  • When both SPX and VIX closed green the same day (red vertical lines), 9 out of 12 times (75%) recently a red close the next day.


1 chart arguing for a green close tomorrow.

  • CPCI closed above 1.55 today which seems most likely to lead a green close tomorrow recently.



  1. Ding!

    Are you saying the rally since March is a sellable bounce or just the past two days?

  2. Just the past 2 days. I also believe the rally since March is a bigger sellable bounce, just no evidence it's the time to sell yet.

  3. Cobra, "I also believe the rally since March is a bigger sellable bounce, just no evidence it's the time to sell yet."

    but then just what "evidence" are you looking for? We've got all sort of indicator pointing at the high since 2007 (and some even not reach since 2000) yet market still won't tank... I don't know what other indicator will work anymore...

  4. With so much free money printed, we need extreme extreme. How extreme is extreme extreme? I don't know.

  5. I agree with you Cobra. I believe the biggie is yet to come,maybe this will happen in the 4Q or could even be next week. Nobody knows exactly when,until the composite operator calls it quits.

  6. for CPCI, if including the up day with CPCI up, it only happens one time.



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